Warning: fopen(/home/virtual/epih/journal/upload/ip_log/ip_log_2024-11.txt): failed to open stream: Permission denied in /home/virtual/lib/view_data.php on line 95 Warning: fwrite() expects parameter 1 to be resource, boolean given in /home/virtual/lib/view_data.php on line 96 Analyzing the dynamics of complicated and uncomplicated appendicitis during the COVID-19 pandemic in Seoul: a multifaceted time series approach
Skip Navigation
Skip to contents

Epidemiol Health : Epidemiology and Health

OPEN ACCESS
SEARCH
Search

Articles

Page Path
HOME > Epidemiol Health > Accepted Articles > Article
Original article Analyzing the dynamics of complicated and uncomplicated appendicitis during the COVID-19 pandemic in Seoul: a multifaceted time series approach
Kiook Baek2,3,4orcid , Chulyong Park1,5orcid
Epidemiol Health 2024;e2024081
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2024081 [Accepted]
Published online: October 1, 2024
1Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, College of Medicine, Yeungnam University, Daegu, Korea
2Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Dongguk University-Gyeongju, Gyeongju, Korea
3Department of Medicine, Graduate School of Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea
4Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Dongguk University Gyeongju Hospital, Gyeongju, Korea
5Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Yeungnam University Hospital, Daegu, Korea
Corresponding author:  Chulyong Park,
Email: ironyong@gmail.com
Received: 30 April 2024   • Revised: 17 August 2024   • Accepted: 25 August 2024
  • 467 Views
  • 13 Download
  • 0 Crossref
  • 0 Scopus

OBJECTIVES
This study investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated control strategies on the incidence of appendicitis in Seoul, using data from 2018 to 2020 from South Korea's National Health Insurance.
METHODS
We analyzed records of total, complicated, and uncomplicated appendicitis cases, as well as the ratio of complicated to uncomplicated appendicitis, using natural spline and piecewise regression models to identify trends and breakpoints. Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) models were used to evaluate the causal impact of social distancing on appendicitis incidences.
RESULTS
The spline regression analysis indicated decreasing trends in both total and uncomplicated appendicitis cases. Conversely, the incidence of complicated appendicitis and the ratio of complicated to uncomplicated cases increased. Breakpoints for a decline in uncomplicated appendicitis and a rise in the ratio occurred at 31 weeks in 2020 (95% confidence interval [CI], 23.2 to 38.8) and at 33.9 weeks (95% CI, 28.3 to 39.6), respectively. The BSTS model demonstrated a 7.8% reduction in total appendicitis cases (95% credible interval [CrI], -12.0% to -3.3%). It also showed a 17% decrease in uncomplicated cases (95% CrI, -22% to -12%) and increases of 13% (95% CrI, 4.9% to 22.0%) in complicated cases and 39% (95% CrI, 27.0% to 53.0%) in the ratio of complicated to uncomplicated appendicitis.
CONCLUSIONS
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a decrease in both total and uncomplicated appendicitis cases, while the number of complicated cases increased. Reduced medical visits likely accounted for these changes. Strategies are needed to manage changes in disease pathophysiology resulting from altered healthcare utilization during health crises.


Epidemiol Health : Epidemiology and Health
TOP