Epidemiology and Health

COVID-19: Original Article

Direct indicators of social distancing effectiveness in COVID-19 outbreak stages: a correlational analysis of case contacts and population mobility in Korea: Sojin Choi, Chanhee Kim, Kun-Hee Park, Jong-Hun Kim; Epidemiol Health. 2023;45:e2023065. Published online July 10, 2023; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2023065

3,286 View
122 Download

Abstract Summary PDF Supplementary Material: Abstract
OBJECTIVES
The effectiveness of social distancing during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been evaluated using the magnitude of changes in population mobility. This study aimed to investigate a direct indicator—namely, the number of close contacts per patient with confirmed COVID-19.
METHODS
From week 7, 2020 to week 43, 2021, population movement changes were calculated from the data of two Korean telecommunication companies and Google in accordance with social distancing stringency levels. Data on confirmed cases and their close contacts among residents of Gyeonggi Province, Korea were combined at each stage. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted to compare the movement data with the change in the number of contacts for each confirmed case calculated by stratification according to age group. The reference value of the population movement data was set using the value before mid-February 2020, considering each data’s characteristics.
RESULTS
In the age group of 18 or younger, the number of close contacts per confirmed case decreased or increased when the stringency level was strengthened or relaxed, respectively. In adults, the correlation was relatively low, with no correlation between the change in the number of close contacts per confirmed case and the change in population movement after the commencement of vaccination for adults.
CONCLUSIONS
The effectiveness of governmental social distancing policies against COVID-19 can be evaluated using the number of close contacts per confirmed case as a direct indicator, especially for each age group. Such an analysis can facilitate policy changes for specific groups.; Summary

Korean summary
1. 사회적 거리두기의 효과를 간접적인 자료인 이동통신사와 구글데이터를 이용하여 인구 이동성 변화의 크기를 평가하였고, 직접적인 자료인 역학조사서의 확진자 1인당 밀접 접촉자 수를 산출하여 비교 평가하였다. 2. 18세 이하 연령대는 사회적 거리두기의 강화 또는 완화 단계에 따라 확진자 1인당 밀접 접촉자 수가 민감하게 변동되었으나, 성인의 경우에는 덜 민감하게 변동되었다. 3. 역학조사서에 기반하여 시계열 자료로 재가공한 확진자 1인당 밀접 접촉자 수는 사회적 거리두기 정책의 효과를 평가하는 직접적인 평가 지표로 사용될 수 있기에 충분히 검토되어야 한다.

Key Message
1. The study assessed social distancing's effectiveness by analyzing population mobility changes through mobile operator and Google data. And it was also compared with the number of close contacts per confirmed COVID-19 case based on the epidemiological survey report. 2. Younger age groups were more influenced by the social distancing policy in close contacts per confirmed COVID-19 case than adults. 3. The study suggests using close contacts per confirmed COVID-19 case from the epidemiological survey report as a direct measure of social distancing policy effectiveness.

COVID-19: Brief Communication

Analyzing the effects of social distancing on the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea using mathematical modeling: Sunhwa Choi, Moran Ki; Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020064. Published online September 7, 2020; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020064

15,364 View
526 Download
16 Web of Science
15 Crossref

Abstract Summary PDF Supplementary Material

Abstract

OBJECTIVES
During the 6 months since the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient was diagnosed in Korea on January 20, 2020, various prevention and control measures have been implemented according to the COVID-19 epidemic pattern. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the reproductive numbers (R) for each epidemic stage to analyze the effects of the preventive measures and to predict the COVID-19 transmission trends.

METHODS

We estimated the transmission rates for each epidemic stage by fitting a COVID-19 transmission model, based on a deterministic mathematical model, to the data on confirmed cases. The effects of preventive measures such as social distancing by time period were analyzed, and the size and trends of future COVID-19 outbreaks were estimated.

RESULTS

The value of R was 3.53 from February18, 2020 to February 28, 2020, and the mean R reduced to 0.45 from March 14, 2020 to April 29, 2020, but it significantly increased to 2.69 from April 30, 2020 to May13, 2020 and it was maintained at 1.03 from May 14, 2020 to July 23, 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

According to the estimated R, it had fallen to below 1 and was maintained at that level owing to the isolation of infected persons by the public health authorities and social distancing measures followed by the general public. Then, the estimated R increased rapidly as the contact among individuals increased during the long holiday period from April 30, 2020 to May 5, 2020. Thereafter, the value of R dropped, with the continued use of preventive measures but remained higher than 1.00, indicating that the COVID-19 outbreak can be prolonged and develop into a severe outbreak at any time.

Summary

Korean summary
수학적 모델링을 통하여 코로나-19 유행양상에 따른 시기별 감염재생산수(reproductive number)를 추정하고, 시기별 방역정책의 효과를 분석하여 향후 유행의 규모와 유행 종료 시점 등을 예측하였다. 그 결과, 4월30일부터 5월5일까지의 긴 연휴 기간을 통해 사람들 간의 접촉이 증가하면서 감염재생산수가 급격히 증가하였고(4월 30일 - 5월 13일까지 평균 R=2.69), 그 후, 지속적인 방역조치로 인해 5월 14일-7월 23일까지 평균 R=1.03로 감소하였으나, 여전히 1보다 큰 값으로 나타나, 코로나-19유행이 지속되고 있으며 언제라도 다시 큰 유행으로 커질 수 있다고 예측되었다.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

Analysis of Symptoms and Demographic Characteristics in Diagnosis of COVID-19 by Logistic Regression Model
Caner Tanış
Selçuk Üniversitesi Fen Fakültesi Fen Dergisi.2024; 50(1): 1. CrossRef
Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission and Intervention in South Korea: A Review of Literature
Hyojung Lee, Sol Kim, Minyoung Jeong, Eunseo Choi, Hyeonjeong Ahn, Jeehyun Lee
Yonsei Medical Journal.2023; 64(1): 1. CrossRef
코로나19 핵심 지표 산출체계 국제 비교 및 활용도 제고 방안 연구
나애 이, 연경 김, 승필 정, 우주 이, 주환 오, 승식 황
Public Health Weekly Report.2023; 16(29): 973. CrossRef
The Effect of COVID–19 on Pediatric Intussusception: A Retrospective Study of a Single Center in South Korea with 10–Year Experience
Yeo Jin Yoo, Bo-Kyung Je, Ga Young Choi, Jee Hyun Lee, Sunkyu Choi, Ji Young Lee
Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology.2022; 83(2): 304. CrossRef
Trends of Internet Search Volumes for Major Depressive Disorder Symptoms During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Korea: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis
Jieun Kim, Juhui Han, Byung Chul Chun
Journal of Korean Medical Science.2022;[Epub] CrossRef
A Novel Approach on Deep Learning—Based Decision Support System Applying Multiple Output LSTM-Autoencoder: Focusing on Identifying Variations by PHSMs’ Effect over COVID-19 Pandemic
Yong-Ju Jang, Min-Seung Kim, Chan-Ho Lee, Ji-Hye Choi, Jeong-Hee Lee, Sun-Hong Lee, Tae-Eung Sung
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2022; 19(11): 6763. CrossRef
Changes in the pattern and disease burden of acute viral respiratory infections before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
Chungmin Park, Donghan Lee, Inho Kim, Sujin Park, Gyehee Lee, Sangwoo Tak
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2022; 13(3): 203. CrossRef
Modelling and analysis of fractional-order vaccination model for control of COVID-19 outbreak using real data
Hardik Joshi, Brajesh Kumar Jha, Mehmet Yavuz
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering.2022; 20(1): 213. CrossRef
Exploring spatial distribution of social vulnerability and its relationship with the Coronavirus disease 2019: the Capital region of South Korea
Donghyun Kim
BMC Public Health.2022;[Epub] CrossRef
Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on the Incidence of Respiratory Infections During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in Korea: A Nationwide Surveillance Study
Kyungmin Huh, Jaehun Jung, Jinwook Hong, MinYoung Kim, Jong Gyun Ahn, Jong-Hun Kim, Ji-Man Kang
Clinical Infectious Diseases.2021; 72(7): e184. CrossRef
Statistical Analysis of Patients Visiting Department of Acupuncture and Moxibustion in Korean Medicine Hospital Before and After COVID-19 - Focusing on a Korean Medicine Hospital in Daejeon -
Young Rok Lee, Hyun Ji Cha, Hyeon Kyu Choi, Min Ju Kim, Beom Seok Kim, Ki Jung Sung, Ju Hyun Jeon, Eun Seok Kim, Young Il Kim
Journal of Korean Medicine.2021; 42(2): 31. CrossRef
Dissection of non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented by Iran, South Korea, and Turkey in the fight against COVID-19 pandemic
Mohammad Keykhaei, Sogol Koolaji, Esmaeil Mohammadi, Reyhaneh Kalantar, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Arya Aminorroaya, Shaghayegh Zokaei, Sina Azadnajafabad, Negar Rezaei, Erfan Ghasemi, Nazila Rezaei, Rosa Haghshenas, Yosef Farzi, Sina Rashedi, Bagher Larijan
Journal of Diabetes & Metabolic Disorders.2021; 20(2): 1919. CrossRef
Hybrid Model-Based Simulation Analysis on the Effects of Social Distancing Policy of the COVID-19 Epidemic
Bong Gu Kang, Hee-Mun Park, Mi Jang, Kyung-Min Seo
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2021; 18(21): 11264. CrossRef
Introducing the Networked Music Performance Library
Daniil Pilchen, Rebekah Wilson
Organised Sound.2021; 26(3): 340. CrossRef
Comparative Analysis of Patients Visiting Department of Korean Internal Medicine in a Korean Medicine Hospital Before and During COVID-19 - From July 2018 to June 2021 at Wonkwang University Jeonju Korean Medicine Hospital -
Ji-eun Lee, Yong-jeen Shin, Sun-ho Shin
The Journal of Internal Korean Medicine.2021; 42(6): 1255. CrossRef

First
Prev
Page of 1
Next
Last

Search