The <i>Kisalaya</i> cohort was established in 2008, providing integrated antenatal care (ANC) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing in order to reduce adverse birth outcomes and pediatric HIV infections. The program used a mobile clinic model to deliver health education, ANC, and HIV/sexually transmitted infection testing and management to pregnant women in rural communities in southern India. This cohort includes pregnant women residing in 144 villages of the Mysuru <i>taluk (a rural region) who received ANC through the mobile clinic and delivered their infants between 2008 and 2011. Of the 1,940 women registered for ANC at primary healthcare centers during this time period, 1,675 (75.6%) were enrolled in the <i>Kisalaya</i> cohort. Once women enrolled in the <i>Kisalaya</i> cohort gave birth, the cohort expanded to include the mother-infant dyads with a retention rate of 100% at follow-up visits at 15 days and at 6 months post-delivery. The baseline data collected during the <i>Kisalaya</i> study included both questionnaire-based data and laboratory-based investigations. Presently, a study entitled “<i>Early life influences on adolescent mental health: a life course study of the Kisalaya birth cohort in south India</i>” is in the process of data collection (2019-2020).
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This study aims to provide a systematical introduction of age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to South Korean readers who are unfamiliar with this method (we provide an extended version of this study in Korean). As health data in South Korea has substantially accumulated, population-level studies that explore long-term trends of health status and health inequalities and identify macrosocial determinants of the trends are needed. Analyzing long-term trends requires to discern independent effects of age, period, and cohort using APC analysis. Most existing health and aging literature have used cross-sectional or short-term available panel data to identify age or period effects ignoring cohort effects. This under-use of APC analysis may be attributed to the identification (ID) problem caused by the perfect linear dependency across age, period, and cohort. This study explores recently developed three APC models to address the ID problem and adequately estimate the effects of A-P-C: intrinsic estimator-APC models for tabular age by period data; hierarchical cross-classified random effects models for repeated cross-sectional data; and hierarchical APC-growth curve models for accelerated longitudinal panel data. An analytic exemplar for each model was provided. APC analysis may contribute to identifying biological, historical, and socioeconomic determinants in long-term trends of health status and health inequalities as well as examining Korean’s aging trajectories and temporal trends of period and cohort effects. For designing effective health policies that improve Korean population’s health and reduce health inequalities, it is essential to understand independent effects of the three temporal factors by using the innovative APC models.
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Korean summary
-건강수준 및 건강불평등의 장기적인 추이에 미치는 연령, 기간, 출생 코호트의 독립적인 영향을 분해하는 방법인 연령-기간-코호트 분석법(Age-Period-Cohort analysis)을 국내 보건의료 연구자들에게 체계적으로 소개함
-APC 분석법은 건강수준 및 건강행태, 건강불평등의 추세 분석 및 고령화, 만성질환, 생애주기 연구 등에 있어서 널리 활용될 수 있음
-APC 연구 결과를 바탕으로 향후 보건의료 정책에 있어서도 기간 또는 연령에 따른 정책뿐 아니라 코호트에 특정한 정책들도 고려되어야 할 필요가 있음
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PURPOSE Cancer has been the leading cause of deaths since 1980s in Korea. Among them, colorectal cancer and breast cancer shows steadily increasing pattern, being the fourth and the fifth common site of cancer death in Korea, respectively. This analysis aimed to evaluate potential contribution of birth cohort effects to the recent increases in mortality of colorectal cancer and breast cancer since 1983 in Korea.
METHODS
Mortality statistics on deaths of both cancers for the past 20 years of 1983~2002 were obtained from the National Statistical Office. The age-standardized mortality rates were calculated based on the census population of 1992 as a standard.
RESULTS
Age-standardized mortality rate for colorectal cancer increased 4.7-fold in men and 3.6-fold in women, whereas 2.1-fold increase in breast cancer mortality during 1983~2002. Age-specific mortality rates for colorectal cancer were steadily increasing by age before 1991 in both genders. However, the mortality rates showed an exponentially increasing pattern for the age group of 70 and over during 1993~2001, which was more prominent in female.
The birth cohort curves showed that there were 2- to 3-fold increases in the mortality rates of people who were born in 1931 for colorectal cancer compared to those of people who were born in 1921. Differences in mortality for breast cancer by birth cohort were 1.7-fold among age group of 45~49 and 50~54 between 1936 and 1946.
CONCLUSIONS
This analysis suggests that recent increases in mortality of colorectal cancer and breast cancer could potentially be due to birth cohort effects, i.e. rapid changes in life-style in younger generation. The quantitative approach using age-period-cohort model should be pursued.